General Situation (all times in BST)
Today there is a small but unstable low centred over NE France, so the breeze should be a moderate ENE gradually easing & veering ESE through the day. Once it cools down it should back left again & ease overnight, NE 8-12 kts. There is a good chance of showers in the morning, clearing into a hot & sunny afternoon. During Tuesday this low should expand into the Western Approaches, with an unstable trough along the N coast of France, bringing moderate ENE veering E & ESE winds. It will be generally hot & sunny but with a chance of afternoon squalls along the coast. Wednesday is looking very light & changeable so far – there won’t be much pressure gradient and the breeze will be light & variable. This could be a sea breeze day with a light SW up the W Solent, & a light SE up the E Solent. On Thursday & Friday the N Atlantic High should extend E again into Biscay with W flow between it & depressions to the N coming up the Channel, bringing a light to moderate W/SW wind, still under clear skies. For Race day on Saturday this W/SW flow should continue, but it is looking quite light so far, albeit hot & sunny.
Gusts are likely to be 1/3 as much again as the average wind speed. Squall-driven gusts may be higher still – the deeper the cloud, the stronger the gust.
Monday July 2nd: ENE 10-14 kts to start, gradually veering right E then ESE 8-12 kts through the afternoon, backing NE 8-12 kts overnight. Cloudy with possible showers in the morning, hot & sunny in the afternoon, 23°C on land, 21°C on the water.
Met Office: ENE 10-14 kts, veering E then ESE 10-14 kts, backing NE 8-12 kt s overnight.
ECMWF: E 10-14 easing 8-12 kts.
NOAA’s GFS model: NE veering E 10-14 kts.
Wednesday 4th: light & variable day – a light & unsteady NE/E to start, with a possible light SW sea breeze in the W Solent, light SE in the E Solent in the afternoon. Hot & sunny.
Met Office: NE/ENE 5-9 kts, dying then coming back SW 5-9 kts after noon.
ECMWF: E 4-8 kts, dying then S/SW 5-9 kts later.
NOAA’s GFS model: NE/E 6-10 kts, then S/SW 5-9 kts later.
Friday 6th: light WSW/WNW, very shifty. Hot and sunny though.
Met Office: NW-SW 6-9 kts, 7-11 kts in the afternoon.
ECMWF: W/SW 4-7 kts to start, 8-12 kts in the afternoon.
NOAA’s GFS model: SW 6-10 kts increasing 8-12 kts.
Sunday 8th: the ridge of high pressure should be directly overhead – it’s likely to be a sunny, dry and very light & variable day for the trip back home.
Tuesday 3rd: ENE 10-15 kts, veering & easing E/ESE 7-11 kts after noon, backing ENE still light overnight, hot & sunny possible afternoon squalls along the coast.
Met Office: ENE 10-15 kts veering E 9-13 kts then backing E 6-10 in the evening.
ECMWF: NE 10-15 kts veering E 8-12 kts after noon, easing E 6-10 kts overnight.
NOAA’s GFS model: NE 12-17 kts veering E 8-12 kts after noon, easing E 7-11 kts overnight.
Thursday 5th: light to moderate SW through the day, some cloud with possible afternoon squalls along the coast.
Met Office: SSW 6-10 kts veering SW 8-12 kts in the afternoon. Clouding over later.
ECMWF: W/SW 4-8 kts in the morning, SW 8-12 kts after noon.
NOAA’s GFS model: S/SW 2-6 kts in the morning, SW 7-11 kts after noon.
Saturday 7th: light to moderate NW to SW - a shifty & unstable day, but hot & sunny.
Met Office: NW 5-9 kts backing SW 8-12 kts in the afternoon. Hot & sunny.
ECMWF: W backing SW 6-10 kts.
NOAA’s GFS model: light & variable settling in S/SW 5-8 kts.